Saturday, February 18, 2012

2012 projections: Jay Bruce


Chances are if you love baseball, you love numbers and statistics just as much. No sport relies more heavily on the use of numbers to measure the performance of its players than baseball. So, to help give a better outlook of what the 2012 season may hold for several Reds players I've dug up some projections from four different sources. They are as follows:

BG: baseballguru.com
RC: rotochamp.com
ZiPS: baseballthinkfactory.org
ESPN: espn.com

The plan is to highlight as many Reds as I can leading up to Opening Day. But first up is the team's projected starter in right field and 2011 All-Star Jay Bruce. Here are his 2012 projections from the four various sites in addition to his career averages per season.

BG: .249/.334/.472, 25 HR, 72 RBIs, 27 2Bs, 69 RS
RC: .255/.341/.476, 31 HR, 100 RBIs, 91 RS
ZiPS: .260/.340/.474, 28 HR, 90 RBIs, 25 2Bs, 81 RS
ESPN: .263/.345/.486, 33 HR, 96 RBIs, 88 RS
Career avg (4 yrs): .256/.331/.474, 25 HR, 69 RBIs, 20 2Bs, 69 RS, 129 GP

Which projection do you see being the most accurate? Personally, I'm going to go with the four-letter network's. Baseball Guru's seems much too low as it relies too heavily on career tendencies, as oppose to BBTF who may have overstated Bruce's production. Roto Champ's seems pretty on-point, but I'm not sure if Bruce will hit the 100-RBI mark this season or not. However, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the 24-year old eclipsed all three of these estimations.

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