Sunday, March 4, 2012

2012 projections: Bronson Arroyo

The 35-year old is aiming for a bounce-back year in '12
The 2011 campaign was one to forget for the Cincinnati right-hander. The lingering effects of contracting mononucleosis in the spring seemed to have carried over well into the regular season. Not only did Bronson Arroyo fall one inning shy of 200 IP for the seventh consecutive year, but he gave up a franchise-record 46 homers, a league-high 112 earned runs, and failed to record double-digit wins in a season for only the second time since 2003. His showing last season have many fans around Reds country wondering, "does the 35-year old have much left in the proverbial tank?" They'll soon find an answer to that question over the coming months.

But in the meantime, here are statistical projections from four different sources to help give us a better idea of what '12 may hold for him. They are as follows:

BG: baseballguru.com
RC: rotochamp.com
ZiPS: baseballthinkfactory.org
ESPN: espn.com

And here are their respective projections for Arroyo:

BG: 10 wins, 5.20 ERA, 161.1 IP, 1.10 WHIP, 2.1 K/BB
RC: 11-10, 4.23 ERA, 160 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 113 Ks
ZiPS: 9-11, 4.84 ERA, 169.1 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 96 Ks
ESPN: 11 wins, 4.48 ERA, 205 IP, 1.34 WHIP, 4.87 SO/9
Career avg (12 yrs): 11-11, 4.28 ERA, 199 IP, 1.316 WHIP

I fully expect the Key West, Fla. native to bounce back from that horrid season a year ago. He committed himself to a new offseason workout plan - which included healthier meals and an emphasis on adding flexibility to his hips and back - all in an effort to help add some life to his declining fastball. Quite simply, Arroyo seems motivated to prove to the baseball world that '11 was a fluke.

I'm not implying that the golden-haired pitcher is going to have a Cy Young Award-type season, however, what I am implying is that he'll pitch better in 2012. Say what you want about him Arroyo, but the man has been an innings-eater and a model of consistency since joining the Reds in 2006.

You can view past player projections by clicking on the following links:
Jay Bruce
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Johnny Cueto
Ryan Madson
Mat Latos

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