Wednesday, March 7, 2012

2012 projections: Homer Bailey

Bailey, 25, appears healthy and ready to go this season

By many accounts the 2011 season was pretty good to David Dewitt "Homer" Bailey. The 25-year old posted career highs in innings pitched (132), wins (9), WHIP (1.280), ERA (4.43) and K/BB (3.21), among others. And that was after missing a combined 8-10 starts due to an ailing shoulder. What would Bailey's numbers look like if he could ever make it through an entire year without going on the disabled list? It's a valid question to ask.

So, to help give a better idea of what this upcoming season may hold for him I've dug up projections from four different sources. They are as follows:

BG: baseballguru.com
RC: rotochamp.com
ZiPS: baseballthinkfactory.org
ESPN: espn.com

And here are their respective projections for Bailey:

BG: 7 wins, 115 IP, 19 GS, 4.19 ERA, 98 Ks
RC: 10-9, 4.15 ERA, 160 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 131 Ks
ZiPS: 9-9, 4.28 ERA, 157.7 IP, 1.329 WHIP, 124 Ks
ESPN: 11 wins, 4.11 ERA, 186 IP, 1.32 WHIP, 159 Ks
Career avg (5 yrs): 5-4, 86 IP, 4.89 ERA, 1.450 WHIP

The best comparison I can think of to Bailey's progress in the bigs is the tortoise in the childhood fable The Tortoise and the Hare -- slow and steady. However, even the slow-footed reptile eventually outpaced his opponent at some point. And after eight years into the race, hopefully 2012 is the year for the right-hander to finally put both an injury-free and complete season together.

You can view past player projections by clicking on the following links:
Jay Bruce
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Johnny Cueto
Ryan Madson
Mat Latos
Bronson Arroyo

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