Friday, March 9, 2012

2012 projections: Mike Leake

Leake is looking down the barrel of another promising season
Most players who experience success in their rookie seasons take a step back in their sophomore campaign -- that wasn't the case for Mike Leake in 2011. After sporting an 8-4 record and 4.23 ERA in 22 starts during 2010, the right-hander continued to progress in his second year in the bigs. He posted a 12-9 tally, 3.86 ERA, 1.175 WHIP and 167.2 IP en route to becoming arguably the team's second-best starter behind ace Johnny Cueto. Can the 24-year old continue to defy traditional logic in '12? Or will his third year in the majors offer more obstacles than the prior two?

And to help give a better idea of what this upcoming season may hold for him I've dug up projections from four different sources. They are as follows:

BG: baseballguru.com
RC: rotochamp.com
ZiPS: baseballthinkfactory.org
ESPN: espn.com

And here are their respective projections for Leake:

BG: 8 wins, 127 IP, 4.50 ERA, 2.5 K/BB, 1.13 WHIP
RC: 11-8, 3.81 ERA, 175 IP, 1.26 WHIP, 121 Ks
ZiPS: 9-9, 4.42 ERA, 159 IP, 1.314 WHIP, 113 Ks
ESPN: 11 wins, 4.02 ERA, 188 IP, 1.29 WHIP, 133 Ks
Career avg (2 yrs): 10-6, 4.03 ERA, 151 IP, 1.320 WHIP

From the looks of it, these sources aren't expecting another increase in production this season from Leake. But the good thing for Cincinnati is that they don't necessarily need a dynamite year from their youngster in order to be successful. They'll gladly take 160 innings, 10-12 wins, and a sub-4.20 ERA from their fifth starter with no questions asked. However, I'm fully confident that the ASU alum is capable of more.

And in case you missed it...

You can view past player projections by clicking on the following links:
Jay Bruce
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Johnny Cueto
Ryan Madson
Mat Latos
Bronson Arroyo
Homer Bailey

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