Thursday, March 1, 2012

2012 projections: Ryan Madson

Madson will don Red once again this year
How else can you describe Cincy's biggest offseason acquisition other than a "steal"? GM Walt Jocketty and the Reds shocked the baseball world by coming out of nowhere to ink the free agent closer this winter. Not only did they do well in signing the 31-year old, but they did so at a relatively cheap price as well (1yr/$8.5M w/$11M option in 2013). Madson proved his worth as a closer last season where he saved 32 games and recorded a tidy 2.37 ERA in 62 appearances for the Phillies. The Redlegs are hoping their newest addition to the 'pen has similar success in 2012.

So, to help give a better idea of what this upcoming season may hold for him I've dug up projections from four different sources. They are as follows:

BG: baseballguru.com
RC: rotochamp.com
ZiPS: baseballthinkfactory.org
ESPN: espn.com

And here are their respective projections for Madson:

BG: 16 SV, 3.46 ERA, 62.1 IP, 59 GP, 60 Ks
RC: 3-3, 35 SV, 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 63 Ks, 60 IP
ZiPS: 5-2, 3.00 ERA, 60 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 63 Ks
ESPN: 37 SV, 2.82 ERA, 67 IP, 1.12 WHIP, 9.40 K/9
Career avg (9 yrs): 5-3, 3.59 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, 2.8 K/BB

Go ahead and disregard Baseball Guru's projections. Those were calculated assuming Madson and Francisco Cordero would both be on the Reds roster -- which of course would never have happened due to financial constraints. Should "Mad Dog" stay healthy, I can easily see him racking up between 35-40 saves in 2012. It's also quite possible that he'll earn his first trip to the Midsummer Classic this season. He would likely join three or four of his Reds teammates if that should happen for him.

Will Madson turn out to be an even better closer than the reliable Cordero? And do you believe the right-hander will remain in the Queen City past this season? Tell me what you think.

You can view past player projections by clicking on the following links:
Jay Bruce
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Johnny Cueto

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