Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Cueto ranks second in Cy Young Predictor

Entering his start at Milwaukee on Tuesday, Johnny Cueto ranked second among all National League pitchers in ESPN.com's Cy Young Predictor, trailing only Mets knuckleballer R.A. Dickey by one point. Furthermore, his score of 129.2 was the fourth-best among all Major League Baseball pitchers regardless of league affiliation.

The CYP, co-authored by Bill James and Rob Neyer, presents a method based on past results to predict the Cy Young Award balloting at a given point in time. So, basically it's a formula designed to provide a best-guess snapshot of the most up-to-date Cy Young Award race. I've included the entire formula at the end of this post.

So, the obvious question you may be asking yourself right now is this: How accurate has this predictor tool been in regards to picking the true winner in the past? Well, it correctly predicted the CYA recipient for both leagues last season (AL-Justin Verlander, NL-Clayton Kershaw) and has correctly identified nine of the last 12 Cy Young Award winners dating back to 2006. I'm no math wizard but I believe that's an accuracy of 75%, which in my mind makes this measurement tool a good indicator of CYA voting. Let's hope Cueto can continue to climb his way toward the top spot.

Cueto currently leads all NL pitchers in WAR (4.6), is tied for the league lead in wins (14), is tied for second in complete games (2), is second in caught stealing percentage (.89), and is third in ERA (2.52), all in spite of getting just an average of 4.00 runs in support per nine innings pitched (T-37th in NL).

As an interesting side note, the Reds have never boasted a Cy Young Award winner since the award's inception in 1956.

Cy Young Predictor Formula:

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (see below).

VB: Victory Bonus is a 12-point bonus awarded for leading your team to the division championship (pro-rated based on the current standings)

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