Monday, January 27, 2014

Where do the Reds measure up in a 2014 projected standings model?

It's the dead of winter, guys. And spring training doesn't officially begin for another three weeks. So, as you might imagine, finding baseball-related stuff to talk about is scarce.

Fortunately, our friend Dayn Perry over at CBS Sports found something of interest, and it comes in the form of projecting standings for the upcoming season. The brain behind the forecasting is veteran analyst and statistical guru Clay Davenport.

Here is a recap of his findings as it relates to the Reds:

+ Davenport's forecasting model places the Reds in third place with an 80-82 record. The model gives Cincinnati a 12.3 percent chance of winning the division and a 15.5 percent chance of earning a Wild Card spot. The run differential has been set at -7.

+ St. Louis and Pittsburgh are the two teams placed ahead of the Reds in the division. According to the model, the Cardinals will boast the best record in the National League.

+ Meanwhile, the Cubs are projected to have the worst record in the league, and thus the worst chance of making the playoffs at just 1.8 percent.

Now, I will admit that the record the model projects for the Reds seems to be a little bearish. I'm not saying the Reds are going to win 95 games, but even despite the lack of moves this offseason, I don't believe this roster is in a position to post a losing record, barring major injuries.

You can check out the projected standings in its entirety by clicking here. You will also be able to read about how the projections are compiled at that link.

How do you see the 2014 campaign panning out for the Reds?

No comments: